Key Takeaways

• Inflation & Monetary Policy: The majority of our economists expect 2 rate cuts in 2024 and 4 rate cuts in 2025. Over 50% of our economists expect 100-175 bps of cuts by 4Q25. Over 50% of survey respondents expect a rate cut in September, followed by around two-thirds in November and over 85% in December. However, around 14% of our economists expect no rate cut in 2024.
• Economic Outlook: Core PCE estimated to end 2024 at +2.8%; +0.4 pps from the last full survey in December 2023, +0.3 pps from the March 2024 flash poll. The top factor to core inflation estimates is wage growth. Averaging 4.2% in 2024, wage growth remains 1.2 pps above the three-year pre-COVID average.
• Labor Market: Real GDP growth estimated at +1.6% in 2024 and +2.0% in 2025; +0.9 pps from our last full survey in December 2023 but no change from our flash poll in March 2024. Over 80% of our economists put the probability of recession from 0% to 30%. As to factors impacting U.S. economic growth, monetary policy – unsurprisingly – came in on top. This factor also shows up near the top in both upside and downside risks to the economy.
• Also in this report, we include forecast tables and charts for the full survey results, as well as an update on where we are in the economic landscape and a reference guide on historical trends for select economic data.

Setting the Scene

Where We Are

We begin by setting the scene on where we are in the economic landscape, in particular inflation and the Fed’s potential rate path to bring inflation back down to its 2% target. As a reminder, the Fed prefers the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) over the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to set monetary policy. You can see the progress the Fed has made, with all inflation measures well below their peaks. Core PCE stands at 2.75% as of April – we are using an extra decimal place to show the M/M decline, otherwise not visible – down 2.8 pps from the March 2022 peak. However, the last mile of a marathon is always the hardest, with 0.8 pps to go to the 2% target.

• Core PCE +2.75%
  • Prior month +2.81%
  • Peak +5.6% in March 2022
  • Path to 2% = -0.8 pps
• PCE +2.65%
  • Prior month +2.70%
  • Peak +7.1% in July 2022
  • Path to 2% = -0.7 pps
• CPI +3.3%
  • Prior month +3.4%
  • Peak +9.0% in June 2022
  • Path to 2% = -1.3 pps
• Core CPI +3.4%
  • Prior month +3.6%
  • Peak +6.6% in September 2022
  • Path to 2% = -1.4 pps

Full Report

Continue reading for all survey results, more charts and a reference guide on the U.S. economic landscape.

About This Report

The SIFMA Economist Roundtable brings together chief U.S. economists from over 20 global and regional financial institutions. SIFMA Research undergoes a semiannual U.S. Economic Survey with this group, analyzing the median economic forecasts of Roundtable members, published prior to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in June and December. In those reports, we analyze the Economist Roundtable’s expectations for: GDP, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, etc. We also review expectations for policy moves at the upcoming FOMC meeting and discuss key macroeconomic topics and how these factors impact monetary policy.

Note: This survey was conducted between June 13-21, 2024.

Credits

SIFMA Economist Roundtable Chair

• Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Securities

SIFMA Economist Roundtable

• Michael Gapen, Bank of America
• Marc Giannoni, Barclays Capital 
• Nathaniel Karp, BBVA Compass 
• Douglas Porter, BMO Financial
• Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup
• Nicholas Van Ness, Credit Agricole
• Lawrence Werther, Daiwa
• Matt Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Securities
• Christopher Low, FHN Financial
• Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs
• Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan
• Thomas Simons, Jeffries
• Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics
• Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley
• Kevin Cummins, NatWest
• Lewis Alexander, Nomura
• Carl Tannenbaum, Northern Trust
• Augustine Faucher, PNC Financial
• Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James
• Stephen Gallagher, Societe Generale
• Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D., Stifel Financial

SIFMA

• Katie Kolchin, CFA, Managing Director, Head of Research
• Justyna Romulus, Vice President, Senior Research Associate

Prior Surveys

• Report

  Economist Roundtable Flash Poll: 1Q24

• Report

  US Economic Survey, End-Year 2023