Key Takeaways

• Monetary Policy: All our economists expect a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting with 90% forecasting a cut of 25 bps. The median forecaster looks for the midpoint of the target range to end 2025 at 3.560% (roughly 100 bps in cuts from current rate) and to end 2026 at 3.375% (a total of 125 bps in cuts from the current rate). Nearly 60% of our economists estimate the neutral nominal fed funds rate to be 3.0%-3.5%.
• Inflation: The median forecaster looks for core PCE inflation to end 2024 at 2.8% (year-over-year), which is unchanged from the last full survey in June 2024 and 0.1 pps higher than the September 2024 flash poll. In 2025, core PCE inflation is estimated to decrease to 2.4%, up 0.1 pps from the June survey. The top factors influencing forecasts for core inflation estimates are wage growth, growth in domestic demand, and monetary policy.
• Economy: The median economist forecasts real GDP will grow 2.4% in 2024; +0.8 pps from our last full survey in June 2024 and +0.3 pps from the September 2024 flash poll. For 2025, the median real GDP forecast is 1.9%, 0.1 pps lower from the June survey. Almost 50% of our economists put the probability of recession from 0% to 15%. The top factors impacting US economic growth are the US labor market, US trade policy, and US monetary policy. US trade policy also shows up near the top in both upside and downside risks to the economy.
• Also in this report, we include forecast tables and charts for the full survey results, as well as an update on where we are in the economic landscape and a reference guide on historical trends for select economic data.

Setting the Scene

We begin by analyzing the inflation environment and the potential path back down to the Fed’s 2% target. The year-over-year change in core PCE inflation stands at 2.8% as of October, down substantially from the peak of 5.6% in 2022. While 2.8% is a significant improvement from the 5.6% peak, the last mile to the Fed’s 2% target has remained stickier than some hoped. Looking at the past six-months, it is interesting to see the differentials between headline and core inflation rates. For headline numbers, the CPI is down 0.7 pps since May, with the PCE only 0.3 pps lower over that same period. However, the core numbers have shown a smaller decline in the case of CPI and an increase for PCE: Core CPI -0.1 pps, PCE +0.13 pps. Core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred metric, has ticked up since May.

Our economists estimate that core PCE inflation will end 2024 at a year-over-year rate of 2.8%. This is a 0.1 pps increase from the flash poll in September but in line with the last full survey in June. The estimate for core PCE inflation recedes to 2.4% for 2025. This was a 0.1 pps increase from the June survey.

Full Report

Continue reading for all survey results, more charts and a reference guide on the U.S. economic landscape.

About This Report

The SIFMA Economist Roundtable brings together chief US economists from around 20 global and regional financial institutions. SIFMA Research undergoes a semiannual US Economic Survey with this group after the June and November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. In those reports, we review the Economist Roundtable’s forecasts for: GDP and factors impacting economic growth, unemployment and other labor market components, inflation, interest rates, and more. We also analyze how these expectations for macroeconomic factors could impact future monetary policy moves.

Note: The survey was populated between November 8-22, 2024.

Credits

SIFMA Economist Roundtable Chair

• Jay Bryson, Ph.D., Wells Fargo Securities

SIFMA Economist Roundtable

• Aditya Bhave, Bank of America
• Marc Giannoni, Barclays Capital 
• Nathaniel Karp, BBVA Compass 
• Douglas Porter, BMO Financial
• Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup
• Nicholas Van Ness, Credit Agricole
• Lawrence Werther, Daiwa
• Matt Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Securities
• Christopher Low, FHN Financial
• Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs
• Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan
• Thomas Simons, Jeffries
• Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics
• Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley
• Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley
• Kevin Cummins, NatWest
• Aichi Amemiya, Nomura
• Carl Tannenbaum, Northern Trust
• Augustine Faucher, PNC Financial
• Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James
• Stephen Gallagher, Societe Generale
• Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D., Stifel Financial

SIFMA

• Katie Kolchin, CFA, Managing Director & Head of Research
• Justyna Romulus, Senior Research Associate
• Matthew Paluzzi, Research Associate

On Demand

• Member Briefing on the US Economic Outlook

  On Thursday, December 5, 2024, SIFMA hosted a briefing for SIFMA members on the results from our latest survey of the SIFMA Economist Roundtable. Watch the replay to hear the latest perspectives from our industry's top economists.

Related Resources

• SIFMA Insights

  Inflation 101

  A hot topic in markets, we take a deeper look into inflation terminology, measurement, and historical trends.

Prior Surveys

• Report

  Economist Roundtable Flash Poll: 3Q24

• Report

  US Economic Survey, Mid-Year 2024

• Report

  US Economic Survey, End-Year 2023