Washington, DC, June 7, 2023 – Today, SIFMA unveiled the results of its Economic Advisory Roundtable semiannual survey of the chief U.S. economists of over 20 global and regional financial institutions.

“The Fed remains committed to regaining price stability and as such, inflation has become the most important factor in its policy decisions. However, with growing signs of weakness coupled with still elevated prices, the Fed now appears to be unclear as to the extent of additional policy action that will be needed to tame inflation. The Fed has indicated willingness to pause further action potentially as early as this month to better assess the evolution of the economy and impact of earlier policy measures. However, any decision to move to the sideline will not be made because of data, but in spite of the data. We expect this would prove temporary with the Committee willing to reengage,” said Dr. Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D., chief economist and managing director at Stifel Financial Corporation and chair of SIFMA’s Economist Roundtable.

We highlight the following survey findings:

• 93% of respondents expect the Fed to pause at next week’s FOMC meeting
• 79% of respondents estimate the peak Fed Funds rate to be 500-525 bps
• 79% of respondents expect the timing of reaching peak Fed Funds rate to be 2Q23
• 71% of respondents expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in 1Q24
• Once the Fed begins cutting rates, 77% of respondents expect them to have to cut rates >100 bps
• On inflation, respondents expect the following levels to end this year
  • PCE – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – +3.1%
  • CPI – the more widely followed figure by consumers – +3.0%
  • This would still put inflation above the Fed’s 2% target

Additionally, the survey (populated between May 15-26, 2023) found:

The full report can be found here.

The 2022 mid-year survey report can be found here.

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SIFMA is the leading trade association for broker-dealers, investment banks and asset managers operating in the U.S. and global capital markets. On behalf of our industry’s one million employees, we advocate on legislation, regulation and business policy affecting retail and institutional investors, equity and fixed income markets and related products and services. We serve as an industry coordinating body to promote fair and orderly markets, informed regulatory compliance, and efficient market operations and resiliency. We also provide a forum for industry policy and professional development.

SIFMA, with offices in New York and Washington, D.C., is the U.S. regional member of the Global Financial Markets Association (GFMA).