Done in partnership with ASIFMA, the Asia Credit Report is a quarterly report on the trends and statistics of the Asian bond market, including both the investment grade and high yield bond market. Additional statistics on the G3 and CNH markets are also included.

For more information on ASIFMA’s efforts in Asian fixed income, please visit ASIFMA.

Summary

Market Overview and Highlights of Asia (ex-Japan, Australia and New Zealand) debt issuance in Third Quarter 2018

Total G3 issuance in 3Q’18 came in at USD 40.4 billion (bn) as of September 30, down 42.2% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) from 2Q’17 (USD 70.0bn) and down 41.1% year-over-year (yoy), inclusive of high grade (HG), high yield (HY), and unrated deals. The Sino-US trade war and consequent weakness in the Chinese markets, rising oil prices and consistent weakness in the Asian EM space as on account of relentless USD strength, has adversely impacted issuance in the two of the region’s key markets, China and India. In addition, rising US interest rates and the first signs of EM weakness spreading globally, are likely to keep Asian credit markets on the defensive going into the final quarter of 2018.

Domestic CNY Issuance

Total domestic CNY issuance stood at USD 139.5bn in the third quarter of 2018, down 11.1% from the second quarter (USD 157.0bn) and 31.7% yoy (USD 204.5bn). By tenor, 71.4% of third quarter issuance (USD 99.7bn) would mature in five years or less, followed by the 7-10 year bucket (USD 24.1bn, or 17.3% of issuance). By sector, finance led issuance totals (USD 52.3bn), followed by construction (USD 15.8bn) and real estate (USD 15.0bn). Year to date, domestic issuance totaled USD 423.2bn, a decline of 6.0% from the first three quarters of 2017. Outstanding domestic CNY debt stood at USD 12.1tn at the end of third quarter 2018, with sovereigns leading totals (USD 7.0tn), followed by financials (USD 2.9tn) and industrials (USD 959.7bn).

Offshore Renminbi (CNH) Issuance

The pace of offshore issuance slowed even further in the third quarter from the second quarter; an equivalent of USD 2.0bn in CNH bonds were issued, a decline of 36.2% qoq but an increase of 7.7% yoy. In terms of tenor, transactions with tenors of 5-years or less accounted for 83.7% of third quarter issuance. HG deals rated AA- totaling USD 502.5mn had the highest rating share among deals (25.7%). In terms of sector, real estate was the largest issuer in 3Q’18 (USD 1.1bn), followed by finance (USD 759.0bn) and computers (USD 87.4mn). Year to date, offshore issuance totaled USD 8.9bn, a decline of 48.6% from the first three quarters of 2017.

Credits

ASIFMA

• Executive Director, Fixed Income: Vijay Chander
• Associate: Timothee Bihet

SIFMA Research

• Managing Director, Head of Research: Kyle Brandon
• VP: Sharon Sung