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Economist Roundtable Flash Poll: 1Q25

The SIFMA Economist Roundtable regular surveys chief U.S. economists on their estimates for GDP, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, and more, as well as expectations for monetary policy moves following select Federal Open Market Committee meetings.

This Flash Poll provides an updated pulse on select questions following our last semiannual survey, including (for 2025):

  • Real GDP growth rate: +1.5% Y/Y; -0.4 pps vs. last survey
  • U.S. unemployment rate: 4.3% estimate; no change vs. last survey
  • Inflation (Y/Y estimate; vs. last survey)
    • CPI/Core CPI: +3.0%/+3.2%; +0.5 pps/+0.5 pps
    • PCE/Core PCE: +2.7%/+2.8%; +0.4 pps/+0.4 pps
  • Federal Funds (Fed Funds) rate
    • Number of cuts in 2025: 50% responded 2
    • Expected Fed funds rate at end-2025: 50% responded 3.75%-4.00% (currently 4.25%-4.50%)
Download Poll (PDF)

 

This survey was conducted between March 21-31, 2025.

About the SIFMA Economist Roundtable

The SIFMA Economist Roundtable brings together chief U.S. economists from around 20 global and regional financial institutions. SIFMA Research undergoes a semiannual U.S. Economic Survey with this group, analyzing the median economic forecasts of Roundtable members, published after Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in June and November. In those reports, we analyze the Roundtable’s estimates for: GDP, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, etc. We also review expectations for policy moves at the following FOMC meetings and discuss key macroeconomic topics and how these factors impact monetary policy.

SIFMA Economist Roundtable Chair

  • Jay Bryson, Ph.D., Wells Fargo Securities

SIFMA Economist Roundtable

  • Aditya Bhave, Bank of America
  • Marc Giannoni, Barclays Capita
  • Nathaniel Karp, BBVA Compass
  • Douglas Porter, BMO Financial Group
  • Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup
  • Nicholas Van Ness, Credit Agricole
  • Lawrence Werther, Daiwa
  • Matt Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Securities
  • Christopher Low, FHN Financial
  • Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs & Co.
  • Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan
  • Thomas Simons, Jefferies & Co., Inc.
  • Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics, Inc.
  • Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley
  • Kevin Cummins, NatWest
  • Lewis Alexander, Nomura
  • Carl Tannenbaum, Northern Trust
  • Augustine Faucher, PNC Financial Group
  • Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James & Associates, Inc.
  • Stephen Gallagher, Société Générale
  • Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D., Stifel Financial

Credits

  • Katie Kolchin, CFA, Managing Director, Head of Research
  • Justyna Romulus, Vice President, Senior Research Associate
  • Matthew Paluzzi, Research Associate

Previous Polls

US Economic Survey, End-Year 2024

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