The Economy:

The median end-year forecast called for 2015 gross domestic product to grow by 2.5 percent on a year-over-year basis and by 2.2 percent on fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis, stronger than predicted in the mid-year survey.

Respondents expected 4Q’15 GDP growth to be 2.2 percent on an annualized basis, rising to 2.5 percent over the following four quarters. On a full year basis, GDP growth is also expected to be 2.5 percent in 2016.

Monetary Policy:

The Roundtable continues to expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise the current 0.0 to 0.25 percent target federal funds rate range, with over 90 percent of respondents expecting the first rate hike to come at the meeting this week. Survey respondents were nearly unanimous that labor market conditions are the most important factor in the FOMC’s decision to raise rates, followed by readings of financial developments and inflation or inflationary expectations.

The report also includes forecasts concerning the employment outlook and oil prices, among other issues.

About the Report

A semiannual survey of SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable concerning the U.S. economic outlook and rates forecasts.

Credits

SIFMA

• Staff Advisor: Kyle Brandon

SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable 2015-2016

• Chair: Ethan Harris, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch