The Economy:

The median mid-year forecast called for 2015 gross domestic product to grow by 2.2 percent on a year-over-year basis and by 1.9 percent on fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter basis, weaker than predicted in the end-year survey.

For full-year 2016, GDP growth is forecast to rise to 2.8 percent on a year-over-year basis Quarterly, annualized GDP growth is predicted to be 2.8 percent in the first and second quarters of 2016.

Monetary Policy:

The Roundtable continues to expect the FOMC to raise its 0.0 to 0.25 percent target federal funds rate range in 2015. Nearly 90 percent of respondents expected the Fed’s first rate hike to occur in the third quarter of 2015, with the balance expecting the first rate hike in the fourth quarter of 2015. Survey respondents were nearly unanimous that labor market conditions are the most important factor in the FOMC’s decision to raise rates, followed by inflation or inflationary expectations and economic activity.

The report also includes forecasts concerning the employment outlook and oil prices, among other issues.

About the Report

A semiannual survey of SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable concerning the U.S. economic outlook and rates forecasts.

Credits

SIFMA

• Staff Advisor: Kyle Brandon

SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable 2015-2016

• Chair: Ethan Harris, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch