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US Economic Survey, End-Year 2024

This survey was populated between November 8-22, 2024

Key Takeaways

  • Monetary Policy: All our economists expect a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting with 90% forecasting a cut of 25 bps. The median forecaster looks for the midpoint of the target range to end 2025 at 3.560% (roughly 100 bps in cuts from current rate) and to end 2026 at 3.375% (a total of 125 bps in cuts from the current rate). Nearly 60% of our economists estimate the neutral nominal fed funds rate to be 3.0%-3.5%.
  • Inflation: The median forecaster looks for core PCE inflation to end 2024 at 2.8% (year-over-year), which is unchanged from the last full survey in June 2024 and 0.1 pps higher than the September 2024 flash poll. In 2025, core PCE inflation is estimated to decrease to 2.4%, up 0.1 pps from the June survey. The top factors influencing forecasts for core inflation estimates are wage growth, growth in domestic demand, and monetary policy.
  • Economy: The median economist forecasts real GDP will grow 2.4% in 2024; +0.8 pps from our last full survey in June 2024 and +0.3 pps from the September 2024 flash poll. For 2025, the median real GDP forecast is 1.9%, 0.1 pps lower from the June survey. Almost 50% of our economists put the probability of recession from 0% to 15%. The top factors impacting US economic growth are the US labor market, US trade policy, and US monetary policy. US trade policy also shows up near the top in both upside and downside risks to the economy.
  • Also in this report, we include forecast tables and charts for the full survey results, as well as an update on where we are in the economic landscape and a reference guide on historical trends for select economic data.

Full Report

Continue reading for all survey results, more charts and a reference guide on the U.S. economic landscape.

Download the Full Report (PDF)

About the US Economic Survey

SIFMA Research conducts a semiannual U.S. Economic Survey with the SIFMA Economist Roundtable, a group of chief US economists from 20+ global and regional financial institutions, after the mid- and end-year Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. In our reports, we review the Roundtable’s forecasts for GDP and factors impacting economic growth, unemployment and other labor market components, inflation, interest rates, and more. We also analyze how these expectations for macroeconomic factors could impact future monetary policy moves.

SIFMA Research also conducts Flash Polls of the Roundtable throughout the year.

SIFMA Economist Roundtable

  • Chair – Jay Bryson, Ph.D., Wells Fargo Securities
  • Aditya Bhave, Bank of America
  • Marc Giannoni, Barclays Capital 
  • Nathaniel Karp, BBVA Compass 
  • Douglas Porter, BMO Financial
  • Andrew Hollenhorst, Citigroup
  • Nicholas Van Ness, Credit Agricole
  • Lawrence Werther, Daiwa
  • Matt Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Securities
  • Christopher Low, FHN Financial
  • Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs
  • Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan
  • Thomas Simons, Jeffries
  • Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics
  • Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley
  • Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley
  • Kevin Cummins, NatWest
  • Aichi Amemiya, Nomura
  • Carl Tannenbaum, Northern Trust
  • Augustine Faucher, PNC Financial
  • Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James
  • Stephen Gallagher, Societe Generale
  • Lindsey Piegza, Ph.D., Stifel Financial

Authors

  • Katie Kolchin, CFA, Managing Director & Head of Research
  • Justyna Romulus, Senior Research Associate
  • Matthew Paluzzi, Research Associate

On Demand

  • Member Briefing on the US Economic Outlook

    On Thursday, December 5, 2024, SIFMA hosted a briefing for SIFMA members on the results from our latest survey of the SIFMA Economist Roundtable. Watch the replay to hear the latest perspectives from our industry's top economists.

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