The Economy:

Members of SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable forecast that the U.S. economy will grow at a 1.7 percent rate in full-year 2013 and grow 2.6 percent in 2014. Concerns over U.S. monetary policy dominate the mid-year 2013 outlook, which is weaker than the Roundtable’s 2012 end-year prediction of a 1.9 percent growth rate.

Monetary Policy:

The Roundtable was unanimous in its opinion that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would maintain its current 0.0 to 0.25 percent target federal funds rate range through at least the first quarter of 2015.

Economic Growth

The median forecast called for 2013 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be 1.7 percent on a year-over-year basis, and 2.0 percent on a fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter basis. Respondents expected GDP growth to rise from 1.6 percent growth in 2Q’13 to 2.5 percent growth in 4Q’13, on an annualized basis. For full year 2014, GDP growth was expected climb to 2.6 percent from 1.7 percent in 2013. The first two quarters of 2014 were expected to stabilize at 2.7 and 2.9 percent annualized GDP growth, respectively. The majority of respondents thought that sequestration cut up to 100 basis points from GDP growth in full-year 2013.

The report also includes forecasts concerning the employment outlook and oil prices, among other issues.

About the Report

A semiannual survey of SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable concerning the U.S. economic outlook and rates forecasts.

Credits

SIFMA

• Staff Advisor: Kyle Brandon

SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable 2012-2013

• Chair: Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs