Market Metrics and Trends

A Look at Monthly Volatility and Equity and Options Volumes

Monthly Metrics

  • Volatility (VIX): Monthly average 19.96; +12.3% M/M, +5.4% Y/Y
  • S&P 500 (Price): Monthly average 5,792.32; +3.0% M/M, +35.8% Y/Y
  • Performance (month/year): best = financials/comms +2.6%/+30.2%; worst = healthcare/energy -4.7%/+6.4%
  • Equity ADV: Monthly average 11.7 billion shares; -1.6% M/M, +9.6% Y/Y
  • Options ADV: Monthly average 47.2 million contracts; +0.9% M/M, +7.3% Y/Y

Monthly Highlight

  • With the 2024 US presidential election on Nov 5, S&P 500 performance in October must be considered with this event in mind. Overall, the S&P 500 has continued to climb throughout the year, +19.6% YTD.
  • Growth rates have come down, +3.3% from Aug-end Oct and -1.0% in Oct. This can be explained by the numbers – S&P 500 already elevated by August, 4,642.83 at the start of the year to 5,446.68 to start August, +14.8%.
  • The S&P 500 took a sharp turn down on the last day of October, -1.9% D/D. Excluding this day, the S&P 500 was +0.9% in October and +21.9%% YTD.
  • What Is Driving Markets? Is it: election day – S&P 500 positive after election day 4x since ‘92, flat 1x, negative 3x; earnings – tech 31.7% of the SPX, earnings results were the reason for the Oct 31 D/D decline; or the economy – doing well but back and forth on data points and FOMC meeting next week.

 

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Author

Katie Kolchin, CFA
Managing Director, Head of Research
SIFMA Insights