Market Metrics and Trends

A Look at Monthly Volatility and Equity and Options Volumes

Monthly Metrics

  • Volatility (VIX): Monthly average 16.75; +5.5% M/M, +25.0% Y/Y
  • S&P 500 (Price): Monthly average 5,979.52; -0.5% M/M, +24.5% Y/Y
  • Performance: Best = comms +9.0%; worst = tech -2.9%
  • Equity ADV: Monthly average 15.4 billion shares; +5.0% M/M, +33.6% Y/Y
  • Options ADV: Monthly average 56.0 million contracts; +10.2% M/M, +22.3% Y/Y

Monthly Highlight

  • Welcome to the Year of the Snake! As has become our tradition in the January Monthly Metrics, we turn to the January barometer to help us predict the markets journey for the year ahead.
  • Since 1990, January market performance was positive 58.3% of the time, and full year market performance was positive 71.4% of the time. When January posted positive market performance, the full year performance was positive 45.7% of the time. Over the last ten years, markets were positive/positive 40.0% of the time.
  • Since 1990, there were three Year of the Snakes: two with a positive January performance, but the full years were split between positive and negative performance. Year of the Snake was last positive/positive in 2013.
  • This year, we ended January positive, +2.7% – will we be going for the 17th positive/positive year?

 

Featured Charts

 

Author

Katie Kolchin, CFA
Managing Director, Head of Research
SIFMA Insights