Market Metrics and Trends

A Look at Monthly Volatility and Equity and Options Volumes

Market Metrics

  • Volatility (VIX): Monthly average 21.84; +28.1% M/M, +58.4% Y/Y
  • S&P 500 (Price): Monthly average 5,683.98; -5.9% M/M, +9.9% Y/Y
  • Performance (month/year): Best = Energy/Energy +3.7%/+9.3%; worst = Cons D/Cons D, -9.0%/-14.0%
  • Equity ADV: Monthly average 16.0 billion shares; +2.5% M/M, +33.1% Y/Y
  • Options ADV: Monthly average 57.0 million contracts; -0.9%, +23.5% Y/Y

Market Musings

  • As we closed out 1Q, the S&P 500 was down 4.6%. Inflation concerns, slowing GDP growth, and uncertainty over tariff policy continued to weigh on markets, with uncertainty the only certain this year.
  • Markets avoided ending the month in correction territory – though we did briefly enter correction territory in the middle of the month – closing down 8.7% to the mid-February peak.
  • The headline number may not be the full story. During the post-election bump, S&P 500 rose 3.0% to year end. March was -1.8% to pre-election level. Markets gave back gains & then some, but less than the headline figure.
  • Can markets have a bad start to the year and still record an annual return close to the 8.0% historical average? It looks like a coin toss, i.e. 50/50, as to posting a negative 1Q and still ending the full year in positive territory.

 

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Author

Katie Kolchin, CFA
Managing Director, Head of Research
SIFMA Insights