The Economy:

Members of SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable forecast that the U.S. economy has grown at a 1.9 percent rate in full-year 2013 and will grow 2.7 percent in 2014. Concerns are not focused on monetary policy but rather are spread across interest rates, job growth and spending in this end-year 2013 outlook, which is little changed from the Roundtable’s mid-year prediction of 1.7 percent and 2.6 percent growth rates for 2013 and 2014, respectively.

Monetary Policy:

The Roundtable was unanimous in its opinion that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would maintain its current 0.0 to 0.25 percent target federal funds rate range through at least the second quarter of 2015.

Economic Growth

The median forecast called for 2013 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be 1.9 percent on a year-over-year basis, and 2.4 percent on a fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter basis. Respondents expected 4Q’13 GDP growth to be 2.3 percent, on an annualized basis, slightly weaker than its previous estimate. For full year 2014, GDP growth was expected climb to 2.7 percent, slightly stronger than the 2.6 percent growth forecast in the mid-year survey. The first two quarters of 2014 were expected to reach at 2.5 and 2.8 per-cent annualized GDP growth, respectively, while 3Q’14 and 4Q’14 are both forecast to be 3.0 percent. Nearly three quarters of respondents thought that sequestration cut up to 100 basis points from GDP growth in full-year 2013.

The report also includes forecasts concerning the employment outlook and oil prices, among other issues.

About the Report

A semiannual survey of SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable concerning the U.S. economic outlook and rates forecasts.

Credits

SIFMA

• Staff Advisor: Kyle Brandon

SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable 2013-2014

• Chair: Diane Swonk, Mesirow Financial