The SIFMA Quarterly Issuance Survey forecasts total net Treasury bill, note, and bond issuance to be $263.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2013, much higher than the net $27.3 billion issued in the third quarter (actuals include cash management balances) and about 44.6 percent more than the $163.5 billion projected for 3Q’13.

Excluding cash management bills (CMBs), total net redemption of Treasury bills, notes, and bonds stood at $27.3 billion, a sharp increase from redemption of $40.7 billion in the prior quarter. CMBs issuance stood at $115.0 billion in 3Q’13, a sharp increase from 2Q’13’s $30.0 billion and the highest quarterly CMBs issuance since 1Q’11.

The total 3Q’13 net issuance, including CMBs, stood at $142.3 billion, a very different outcome than the $10.7 billion redeemed in the previous quarter and 31.9 percent less than the Treasury’s July issuance estimate of $209.0 billion in the third quarter of 2013.

About the Report

A quarterly survey of SIFMA’s Primary Dealers and Government Securities Research and Strategist Committees concerning U.S. government issuance and rates forecasts. The committees are composed of trading strategists and research analysts at SIFMA member firms who specialize in the U.S. government and agency securities markets. The survey is intended to provide market participants with the current consensus expectations and median forecasts of many of the primary dealers and other firms active in the U.S. government and agency securities markets.

Credits

SIFMA Capital Markets

• Staff Advisor: Rob Toomey

SIFMA Research

• Senior Associate: Justyna Podziemska